The leaves are falling. The standings are shaking. Football is warming up.
There is a litany of juicy matchups in Week 10. Perhaps none is bigger than the Monday night clash between the Packers and Eagles at Lambeau Field, with both teams fighting to eventually earn home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.
The game is a rematch of last season’s wild-card round, when Philadelphia stifled Green Bay in a 22–10 win. However, this contest is in Packers country with Jordan Love & Co. trying to bounce back from a stunning loss to the visiting Panthers last week.
Elsewhere, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert will meet on Sunday night at SoFi Stadium, while J.J. McCarthy tries to take down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens for Minnesota’s second consecutive upset victory. Lastly, the Rams and 49ers meet for their rematch after San Francisco pulled a prime-time victory in Week 5, and the Patriots and Buccaneers clash in Tampa Bay for a date between a pair of division leaders.
But we start in Minnesota, where the Vikings and Ravens are both trying to climb back into their respective playoff pictures.
Ravens (3–5) at Vikings (4–4)
Spread: Baltimore -4.5
Key matchup: Minnesota’s run defense vs. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry
Key stat: Baltimore averages a league-best 5.2 YPC.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Everything about the Minnesota run defense is average. The Vikings rank 16th in yards per carry against (4.2) and 17th in total rushing yardage (978). They’re also 21st in EPA per rush against (-0.047).
To beat the Ravens, Minnesota’s front will have to be much better than average. Baltimore has struggled at times offensively this season with quarterback Lamar Jackson down for three games. Still, the Ravens are tied for first at 5.2 YPC behind the deadly combination of Jackson and running back Derrick Henry.
Despite being in his age-31 season, Henry is still averaging 4.9 YPC while amassing 629 yards, 29 first downs and six touchdowns on the ground. With Jackson now back to help create conflict for defenders on run-pass options, Henry should only grow more effective as the weather turns colder.
For Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the plan is typically to blitz and force quarterbacks to throw into one-on-one situations. Minnesota ranks second in blitz rate at 41.4%, something Flores could lean into with Baltimore, which has only one top-end receiving threat in Zay Flowers.
The scary part? If Henry or Jackson beat the blitz with their legs, look out.
Verderame’s Verdict: Ravens 27, Vikings 19
