The Lakers avoided an absolute worst-case scenario when Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels fell into Anthony Davis’s left knee Friday night. But that doesn’t mean they’ve steered clear of a crisis.
Davis is expected to miss about a month with a sprained MCL. If Los Angeles is lucky, Davis will be sidelined for about only 15 games, leaving 37 more for him to play. But the eight-time All-Star’s eventual presence back in the lineup shouldn’t be seen as a cure-all solution to whatever problems they’ll surely stumble upon while he’s out. When he went down, the Lakers were 16–14, a six seed with the league’s easiest schedule and only four games away from 11th place. They ranked 20th in net rating, 10th in defensive rating and 24th in offensive rating.
Injuries suffered by LeBron James, Kendrick Nunn and Trevor Ariza allowed some optimism about what this roster can accomplish with everybody healthy. But in the 405 minutes Davis has shared the floor with LeBron, the Lakers are only +4. That’s a humongous red flag. And even though they’re far superior with AD at the five and DeAndre Jordan/Dwight Howard on the bench, overall those units haven’t exactly set the world on fire.
Davis’s points per 36 minutes (23.7) are lower than any season since he turned 20, and projection systems at and Basketball-Reference already had the Lakers’ playoff probability below 40%. Those numbers should dip even further, given how wretched Los Angeles looks when Davis LeBron are both on the sidelines.
Remove Davis from the equation and Frank Vogel now must decide whether Jordan and Howard will both enter his rotation, or whether LeBron will log more minutes at center than ever before. (James is already averaging 37.1 minutes per game, his most since 2017. Right now only Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet logs more. LeBron led the league in ’18 at 36.9 minutes per game.)
A dramatic all-in-on-offense downsize would be fascinating and potentially beneficial to Russell Westbrook (though he’ll still miss the best pick-and-roll partner he’s ever had) and L.A.’s stale offense. Ariza’s return gives them more flexibility alongside Austin Reaves, Carmelo Anthony and Kent Bazemore. But even if their three-point rate (which ranks 23rd) spikes, what they won’t have are all the shots around the basket Davis creates and finishes. On the other end, they allow too many shots at the hoop even when Davis plays. If those numbers rise, things could get pretty ugly.
